The Contenders

The Baltimore Sun has a rundown of potential contenders for the 2008 nomination. They seem to agree with the conventional wisdom that Hillary and Edwards are the favorites for the Democratic nod (they also mention Kerry as one of the leading contenders, but that seems like nothing more than a courtesy). Their Republican favorites include Frist, McCain, Giulani, Hagel, and Jeb Bush.

Shockingly, I actually agree with Grover Norquist - if Hillary decided to go for the nomination, she'd be virtually unstoppable (unless another candidate with that certain "rock-star" quality emerged), but would too divisive a figure to succeed in the general election. As far as Republicans go, I'm not sure McCain will have the energy left to gear up for a run in 2008. Not only is he 68, but he's looked particularly old and tired on TV recently. He seems destined to become one of those much-loved American political figures who never becomes President. In fact, never becoming President will probably be the best thing for his historical reputation.

There's also a passing reference to Arnold in the article, as Brookings fellow Stephen Hess claims he would be the only liberal Republican who could gain the nomination, because - well, because he's the Terminator. Of course it's a moot point though...or is it? The Senate Judiciary Committee held hearings in October on the "natural-born" requirement of the U.S. Constitution. Personally, I think there's a good chance it will be repealed - seriously, who would oppose it? Certainly not the Democrats, the "party of inclusion". Stay tuned, this could be one of the more interesting subplots of the 2008 campaign.